Change in Zimbabwe is happening; and is driving a Tsunami of expectation. But there are many different perspectives on that change, offering the prospect of a spectrum of reactions over time ranging from assertively expressed self-interest to popular disillusionment and discontent. None of this is to propose [...]
Introduction Change is happening in Zimbabwe. But its nature is unclear, its trajectory is unknown and any assumption that it is for the better is very tenuous. What is clear, however, is that it ought to be an opportunity to lever better outcomes in the future. Managing [...]
Kenya is approaching its next round of elections; and although close it is clear that the process is unlikely to throw up any real surprises. The entitled highland elite - across the political spectrum - will continue to dominate the distribution of power and wealth. And even [...]
Central African Republic (CAR) has been in one form or another of political or security crisis for a very long time indeed. More recently, the political crisis has been overshadowed by the security crisis, with control over the use of force significantly contested; and the international arbiter [...]
“So far like the present period” Very superficially, Zimbabwe and Uganda have a lot in common. Both (with some politically driven exceptions) are quite close to the UK in cultural and society terms; and both are striving to retain or retrieve a reputation for growth, strength and [...]
Uganda is, in many respects, a remarkable success story. From a country wracked by a succession of avaricious leaders and a civil war, it has been regarded - since 1986 – as a bastion of stability, relative prosperity and a key partner in the promotion of regional [...]
Zimbabwe's political context is conditioned almost entirely by the President's (apparently rapidly) failing health; and the jockeying around him for power and influence - both in the near term; and with an eye to future political (and in the case of the wider Mugabe family, legacy and financial) [...]
It has been a busy week for Somalia - and Somali watchers. Another in a series of international conferences on support to that country has come and gone with plenty of fine words and lots of apparent commitment. And indeed, it rather looks as though there is cause [...]
Political Economy Analysis (PEA) is… …about people Although often billed as a mapping of events and institutions, it is really people who shape both. (Although there are times when even the best intentioned people are unable to overcome the effects of a poorly conceived programme or an inappropriately [...]
Key conclusions Sustainable change is behaviour change. Understanding the incentives which govern why people do what they do is essential. Learning is essential. Programmes that cannot learn cannot operate in a dynamic or challenging context. Opportunity matters. Change - of any kind - is not guaranteed to happen; [...]
